BTCUSD surges past $100K ahead of key central bank decisions and data

Market sentiment dwindles ahead of top-tier catalysts

Markets remain cautious ahead of major events, including the FOMC rate cut, December PMIs, Fed inflation, and central bank decisions from the Bank of England (BoE) and Bank of Japan (BoJ). Adding to the unease are updates from China and anticipation of today’s PMIs and ECB President Christine Lagarde’s speech.

EURUSD, GBPUSD rebound but USDJPY edges higher

EURUSD recovers from a three-week low as the US Dollar retreats, though ECB dovishness and weak EU economic sentiment ahead of PMIs cap gains.

GBPUSD bounces back but struggles as UK manufacturers report the steepest drop in confidence since the pandemic, coupled with a 1.7% fall in house prices.

USDJPY edges higher despite the BoJ policymakers’ reluctance to raise rates, with improved Japanese PMIs offering some support.

Antipodeans pare previous losses

AUDUSD halts a four-day losing streak despite weak Australian PMIs and China concerns.

NZDUSD follows suit, supported by better New Zealand (NZ) services PMI, but China-related risks and weaker NZ growth forecasts limit the recovery.

Meanwhile, USDCAD stalls at a 56-month high as oil prices provide mild relief, though the dovish BoC stance and key data ahead keep gains in check.

Gold snaps two-day losing streak, Crude Oil pares weekly gain

Gold snaps a two-day losing streak, rebounding on hopes of stronger China demand and ahead of the Fed’s rate cut. However, geopolitical tensions and trade worries limit momentum. After posting its biggest weekly gain in three weeks, crude oil retreats amid mixed demand-supply signals and an overall firm US Dollar.

Bitcoin renews record high as crypto bulls keep the reins

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) hits a fresh all-time high near $106.5K, testing a three-week-old resistance. Meanwhile, Ethereum (ETHUSD) struggles for upward momentum despite bullish factors like Ukraine’s plan to legalize crypto by 2025, strong ETF inflows, and Trump-backed World Liberty Financial (WLFI) endorsing cryptocurrencies as superior reserve assets amid inflation concerns and potential Fed rate cuts.

Latest moves of key assets

• WTI crude oil prints mild losses around $70.80 while paring the biggest weekly gain in three.
• Gold bounces off month-old support to snap a two-day losing streak with minor gains near $2,654.
• The USD Index justifies the previous day’s Doji candlestick by printing mild losses near 106.90 as we write.
• Wall Street closed mixed but the Asia-Pacific shares drift lower. Further, the European and British equities trade mixed during the initial trading hour.
• BTCUSD remains sidelined around $105K after refreshing record high near $106.5K. That said, the ETHUSD lacks upside momentum near $3,965.

PMIs, ECB’s Lagarde eyed…

This week kicks off with key data, starting with the preliminary December PMIs for major economies. ECB President Christine Lagarde’s speech and the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index are also crucial events for today.

While the PMIs may have limited impact on currencies, Lagarde’s speech could halt EURUSD’s rebound if she highlights continued economic concerns for the Eurozone. The UK PMI may underscore economic struggles, weighing on GBPUSD, while USDJPY may stay supported by fresh concerns over the BoJ.

With traders eyeing Wednesday's Fed rate cut, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, and USDCAD could reverse early gains unless the US Dollar weakens further. This could also provide a boost to Gold and Bitcoin (BTCUSD), extending their recent rallies.

Predictions for top-tier assets

• Bullish Move Expected: USDCAD, USDJPY, US Dollar, Silver, BTCUSD, ETHUSD
• Further Downside Likely: AUDUSD, NZDUSD, GBPUSD
• Sideways Movement Anticipated: Nasdaq, Gold, DJI30, USDCNH
• Slow & Gradual Fall Eyed: DAX, FTSE 100, EURUSD, Crude Oil

May the trading luck be with you!