After multiple failures to cross the 50-SMA hurdle the last week, USDJPY sellers attack the 149.00 round figure amid a sluggish start to the key week comprising US GDP and Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, not to forget Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech. The pullback move also justifies the bearish MACD signals amid an absence of the oversold RSI (14). With this, the Yen pair is likely to revisit the monthly low of 147.15, marked the last Monday. However, the 100-SMA and an upward-sloping support line from late March, respectively near 146.80 and 146.30, could challenge the risk-barometer pair sellers afterward. In a case where the quote breaks the 146.30 level on a daily closing basis, it becomes vulnerable to drop toward the five-month-old resistance-turned-support of around mid-143.00s.
On the flip side, a daily closing beyond the 50-SMA hurdle of 149.65 becomes necessary for the USDJPY buyers to retake control. Even so, the 150.00 psychological magnet will play its role in testing the upside momentum. Following that, the monthly horizontal resistance surrounding 151.80 and an upward-sloping resistance line from late June, close to 153.00 at the latest, will act as the final defense of the bears.
Overall, the USDJPY is likely to remain weak but the downside room appears limited.