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Denis Sergienko • 2022-07-06

EURUSD widened doors for bears ahead of FOMC Minutes

EURUSD widened doors for bears ahead of FOMC Minutes

EURUSD dropped to the lowest levels since late 2020 on breaking the two-month-old horizontal support area near 1.0360-50, before the latest dribbling around 20-year low. The downside also conquered the 61.8% FE of March-May moves while extending the south-run inside a four-month-long bearish channel. With this, the sellers keep reins ahead of the Fed Minutes and the US ISM Services PMI for June, both of which are likely to exert downside pressure on the quote. Hence, the major currency pair is likely to extend the fall toward testing the 78.6% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) level near 1.0140. In a case where the oversold RSI fails to trigger a rebound around 1.0140, the odds of witnessing the 1.0000 psychological magnet back to the chart can’t be ruled out. The 1.0000 figures also coincide with the aforementioned channel’s support line.

Meanwhile, corrective pullback needs to stay beyond 1.0360 support-turned-resistance to gain the market’s confidence. Even so, the 1.0480 and upper line of the stated channel, close to 1.0540, will be crucial hurdles for the EURUSD bulls to cross before taking back control. During the quote’s run-up beyond 1.0540, late June’s swing high near 1.0615 and the previous monthly top surrounding 1.0785 could gain the market’s attention.

To sum up, EURUSD stays on the bear’s radar ahead of important data/events. Even if the scheduled catalysts disappoint sellers, the recovery moves are likely to have a bumpy road ahead.

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