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Denis Sergienko • 2022-07-21

EURUSD bulls have a long way ahead to take control as ECB looms

EURUSD bulls have a long way ahead to take control as ECB looms

EURUSD fades a week-long recovery mode ahead of the key European Central Bank (ECB) meeting. The pullback could also be linked to the pair’s inability to cross the 100-SMA amid RSI retreat from overbought territory, which in turn suggests the further weakness of the quote. However, a weekly support line, now resistance, joins the 100-SMA near 1.0230 to challenge intraday sellers, a break of which could quickly drag the quote towards the previous Wednesday’s peak surrounding 1.0120. In a case where the major currency pair drops below the 1.0120 supports, the odds of its slump towards the parity level can’t be ruled out. However, bullish MACD signals probe the bears targeting the fresh yearly low, currency around 0.9950.

Meanwhile, a sustained trading beyond the 1.0230 resistance confluence can direct short-term buyers towards the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of June 09 to July 14 downside, at 1.0265. Iff the EURUSD prices cross the 1.0265 resistance, a five-week-old horizontal area including the 50% Fibonacci retracement, near 1.0360-65, could challenge the buyers. It’s worth noting that a convergence of the 200-SMA and a downward sloping trend line from June 09, close to 1.0400, appears the last defense of the pair bears, a break of which could give control to the bulls.

To sum up, EURUSD sellers seem flexing muscles ahead of the ECB’s widely known 0.25% rate hike and hence the region’s central bank should do more to defend the Euro buyers.

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