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MTrading Team • 2023-08-16

Falling wedge, oversold RSI tease NZDUSD buyers on RBNZ day

Falling wedge, oversold RSI tease NZDUSD buyers on RBNZ day

NZDUSD bears appear running out of steam after a four-week downtrend as the Kiwi pair portrays a one-month-old falling wedge bullish chart formation at the yearly low amid the oversold RSI (14) line. That said, the 10-DMA surrounding 0.6045 guards immediate recovery of the quote ahead of the key 0.6060 resistance comprising the top line of the stated wedge. In a case where the bulls manage to keep control after crossing the 0.6060 hurdle, June’s high of around 0.6250 and a six-month-long horizontal area near 0.6380-90 can test the upside momentum before the falling wedge’s theoretical target of 0.6535. It’s worth noting that the said 0.6535 level coincides with the yearly peak marked in February and hence becomes the key hurdle for the buyers to watch afterward.

On the contrary, the aforementioned wedge’s lower line restricts the immediate downside of the NZDUSD pair around 0.5920, a break of which will defy the bullish chart pattern. However, the 0.5900 round figure and a downward-sloping support line from early March, close to 0.5880, could challenge the bears afterward. In a case where the Kiwi sellers refrain from stepping back past 0.5880, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of October 2022 to February 2023 upside, around 0.5730, will act as the last defense of the buyers before directing the quote to the previous yearly low of near 0.5515.

Overall, NZDUSD is likely to witness recovery as the RBNZ managed to lure Kiwi buyers without doing much. However, Fed Minutes will be crucial to watch for clear directions.

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