Thursday’s market activity was subdued due to the U.S. Thanksgiving Holiday and a light global economic calendar, which kept trading volumes low. Despite this, key headlines from Japan, China, New Zealand, and Australia shaped the Asia-Pacific session. A sharp rise in dovish Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) expectations—jumping from 35% last week to nearly 85%—fueled a cautious risk-on sentiment. This was further supported by optimism surrounding a potential Ukraine-Russia peace deal and solid performance in the tech sector, keeping the market in a positive, though restrained, mood.
In the U.S., the Federal Reserve’s November Beige Book showed little change in economic activity across most districts, with some areas flagging risks of slower growth. While manufacturers were generally optimistic and wages grew moderately, price increases remained moderate. The report, compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas from data collected before November 17, 2025, painted a picture of stability with cautious concerns about future growth.
On the economic data front, U.S. reports earlier in the week revealed weaker-than-expected Durable Goods Orders for September, which fell to 0.5% from a revised 3.0%, and a slight drop in Weekly Jobless Claims to 216K, beating the forecast of 225K. These results reinforced market expectations that the Federal Reserve may implement a rate cut in December, with the probability of this event now around 85%, up significantly from 30% just a week ago.
In central bank news, the European Central Bank (ECB) highlighted inflation concerns, with Chief Economist Philip Lane noting that returning inflation to the ECB's 2% target would require a deceleration in energy prices. Meanwhile, Bank of Japan (BoJ) board member Asahi Noguchi suggested that any withdrawal of stimulus would depend on sustained wage growth and inflation. The BoJ also plans to increase short-term bond issuance to fund Japan’s stimulus package. However, Fitch warned that prolonged stimulus spending could lead to rising fiscal risks, although the near-term impact remains unclear.
In the UK, Chancellor Rachel Reeves presented a growth-focused Autumn Budget, which reassured markets by avoiding the feared bank tax hikes and offering fiscal space for growth. The British Pound responded positively, rising by 0.49% as investors reacted to the budget's emphasis on fiscal responsibility and growth.
On the economic front in China, industrial profits showed mixed results. For the January–October period, they rose 1.9%, but October’s profits saw a 5.5% year-on-year decline, suggesting that the economic recovery may be losing momentum. Meanwhile, Wood Mackenzie reported that China is nearing peak oil demand, with growth expected to stagnate by 2027.
In New Zealand, business confidence surged to 67.1% in November, its highest level in 11 years, signaling a strong economic recovery. Retail sales for Q3 jumped 1.9% quarter-on-quarter, well above expectations, further supporting a positive outlook. As a result, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is now expected to hold rates steady through 2026 unless there is a significant downturn in economic conditions.
In commodities, WTI crude oil prices rose by $0.63 to $58.58, despite a larger-than-expected build in U.S. oil inventories, which increased by 2.774 million barrels, well above the 0.055 million expected. This increase, however, did little to dampen the upward pressure on oil prices.
Against this backdrop, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) portrays a four-day losing streak, poking a two-month support, while EURUSD rises for the fourth consecutive day despite lacking upside momentum of late. That said, GBPUSD posts a six-day uptrend while rising to a month’s high, whereas USDJPY remains pressured at a weekly low, reversing the previous day’s gains. Elsewhere, AUDUSD rises for the fifth straight day to hit a two-week high, while NZDUSD rallied to the highest in November, and the USDCAD drops to a weekly low during its three-day downtrend. Meanwhile, WTI crude oil weakens within its five-day trading range near the month’s low, while the gold price retreats from a five-week resistance.
The EURUSD extended its winning streak for a fourth consecutive day, fueled by a weaker U.S. Dollar, hopes for an end to the Ukraine-Russia war, and growing dovish bets on the Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, recent U.S. data have been disappointing, while EU statistics have been relatively stronger. However, internal political challenges within the European Union and ongoing uncertainty over the war in Ukraine, despite expectations of a resolution soon, continue to cloud the region's outlook and temper optimism about the Eurozone.
GBPUSD rallied for a sixth straight day, reaching its highest level in November, buoyed by relief from the UK’s annual budget. Despite the unexpected early release of fiscal and economic forecasts, the softer U.S. Dollar and general market optimism supported the move.
In contrast, Japan's fiscal concerns and uncertainty over the Bank of Japan's next policy move weighed on the Japanese Yen (JPY). However, the Yen’s safe-haven status helped USDJPY stay within a trading range, holding near its weekly low.
AUDUSD extended its rally for the fifth consecutive day, reaching a two-week high, supported by a weaker U.S. Dollar and cautious market optimism, bolstered by hawkish expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).
Meanwhile, NZDUSD surged to its highest level in November, as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) dismissed rate cut expectations and was further supported by strong New Zealand data, as mentioned earlier. In contrast, USDCAD dropped to a weekly low during its third day of losses, ignoring the softer prices of Canada’s key export, crude oil, amid broader USD weakness.
WTI crude oil weakens within its five-day trading range near the month’s low, while the gold price retreats from a five-week resistance. In doing so, the oil price justifies an increase in the inventories and demand fears, while the gold benefits from its traditional haven status amid the softer USD and macro uncertainty.
U.S. equities maintained their upward trend, with the NASDAQ leading (+0.82%), followed by the S&P 500 (+0.69%) and the Dow (+0.67%). Wall Street notched its fourth straight day of gains, and the Asia-Pacific equities also saw modest gains. Cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, were poised to end a four-week losing streak, reaching weekly highs, despite lacking upside momentum of late.
Thursday’s market moves could be limited by the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, with mid-tier EU data and the ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts likely to take center stage. Key risk factors to watch include central bank speculations, updates on Ukraine, and tensions between China and Japan.
With December Fed rate cut bets rising, the U.S. Dollar may remain under pressure, but a crucial support level near 9.40 will be important to monitor in the current volatile market. Meanwhile, optimism surrounding trade and geopolitical developments could provide support for risk assets like equities and cryptocurrencies.
May the trading luck be with you!
