EURUSD appears all-set for the weekly gain even if a three-month-old descending resistance line and the overbought RSI (14) restrict the pair’s immediate upside. It’s worth noting that the bullish MACD signals and the quote’s successful trading above the key Fibonacci retracement ratios, as well as the SMAs, keep the buyers hopeful. That said, the 61.8% and 50% Fibonacci retracement levels of the Euro pair’s August-October downside, respectively near 1.0830 and 1.0755, initially test the bears before directing them toward the 50-SMA 1.0745. It’s worth noting that the 200-SMA level of around 1.0620 acts as the final defense of the buyers, a break of which will make the pair vulnerable to a drop to the previous monthly low of 1.0450.
Alternatively, a downward-sloping resistance line from mid-August, around 1.0885-90, appears a tough nut to crack for the EURUSD bulls as they await European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde’s speech. Following that, tops marked on August 30 and 15, close to 1.0945 and 1.0955, will act as additional upside filters before directing the Euro bears toward the 1.1000 round figure and then to the August month’s top of near 1.1065. In a case where the major currency pair remains firmer past 1.1065, the odds of witnessing a run-up toward the yearly high of near 1.1275, marked in July, can’t be ruled out.
Overall, EURUSD remains on the bull’s radar even if the upside room appears limited ahead of a speech from ECB’s Lagarde. That said, Lagarde is likely to defend the Euro bulls by being hawkish but a reference to the economic hardships and recently easy inflation numbers might allow the pair traders to consolidate weekly gains.